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How rising temps could affect Maryland

Photo by Brendan Beale | Unsplash.com
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By Sasha Allen, Capital News Service
Posted on July 23, 2025

Temperatures in Maryland have never been warmer. Since the 20th century, temperatures in the state have risen around 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.

But it’s more than just heat. Federal data shows the state is experiencing increasing precipitation, a higher probability of summer droughts, more extreme weather events and flooding accompanied with rising sea levels.

The impact of climate change on the state is as varied as its landscape. From vast forests and rolling farms that line the Eastern Shore to the 80.9 square miles of Baltimore City scattered with “heat islands,” different areas of the state will be affected by climate change in very different ways.

Here’s a closer look at what’s happening to the climate, and what’s expected to happen:

Baltimore City

Baltimore City is vulnerable to both rising temperatures and increased precipitation. The city saw its hottest recorded temperatures in 2023, with an average of 59.4 degrees Fahrenheit for the year.

Increasing temperatures are one of the biggest threats to the city, and because of its infrastructure and lack of greenery, many areas in the city are classified as urban heat islands. High temperatures are dangerous for residents, may overload the energy grid and could increase respiratory illness rates, including asthma.

“The number-one killer from climate change is not hurricanes; it’s not flooding — it’s heat,” Maryland author Mike Tidwell said. “Heat waves kill more people, especially the very old and the very young and the very poor, so [we should be] very concerned about areas of Baltimore and elsewhere.”

Some people in the city are trying to protect residents from these rising temperatures. Katie Lautar is the executive director of Baltimore Green Space, a nonprofit working to preserve gardens, trees and forests in our communities.

“If we are going to lose more forests, the temperatures are going to rise faster,” Lautar said. “Forests provide better cooling benefits to the surrounding community.”

But rising temperatures aren’t the only worry for the city. Rising sea levels and increases in extreme storm events could affect Baltimore because it sits right on the harbor.

A study done by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lays out the risks Baltimore City faces. It found that from 1997 to 2011, the city was spending $2.2 million annually to rebuild from flooding events.

“If there are streets that are already flooding, with buses floating down the street in severe weather events, then we need to be especially mindful that development should not be encouraged right around those regions,” Lautar said.

If temperatures increase by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, residents will see between four and five more days above 95 degrees. The number of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase as well.

The city is trying to adapt. Baltimore City adopted a new version of its disaster preparedness plan in 2023, specifically targeting the effects of climate change on residents.

People are concerned. A Baltimore-area survey published by Johns Hopkins University in March found that three-quarters of the Baltimore County residents surveyed said they are worried about higher costs due to climate change.

Overall, 73% of Baltimore-area residents believe climate change will affect them personally at some point in their lives. This is a stark difference from the 2023 national estimate of 46% of adults who believe climate change will affect them at some point in their lives, according to the survey.

“We found that the overall share of Baltimore-area residents who are concerned that climate change will personally harm them in the future is high compared to the nation and the state of Maryland,” wrote the study authors.

Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore

The Chesapeake Bay region is the United States’ third-most vulnerable area to sea level rise, behind Louisiana and South Florida, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

The Chesapeake Bay has already risen from between 1.3 to 1.5 inches each decade over the past 100 years, and increasing temperatures would drastically increase precipitation.

Throughout Maryland’s Eastern Shore, the fishing industry is changing. Blue crab populations, which do well in warmer waters, will thrive. But warmer waters will kill fish at an increasing rate, and an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases the acidity of the water, which can deplete oyster populations.

The remnants of Harriet Tubman’s birth home sit in a dying forest in Dorchester County.

“They found the original foundations of her home and you now can’t even get there because it’s in the middle of a ghost forest,” said Kate Tully, a researcher and associate professor at the University of Maryland College of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

Ghost forests — which are either partially or completely dead — can be found throughout the lower Eastern Shore in Dorchester, Somerset, Worcester and Wicomico counties.

These ghost forests result from saltwater intrusion, or what Tully refers to as “invisible floods,” where seawater creeps inland as temperatures and waters rise.

“That’s essentially when the salt burns the tree from the inside out,” Tully said.

High tides, droughts and groundwater pumping all contribute to this increasingly common phenomenon. Eventually, land plagued by saltwater intrusion turns into either marshland or open water.

As a result, Tubman’s home — only discovered just a few years ago in the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge — is now inaccessible.

In the lower Eastern Shore, there are over 70,000 acres of forest classified by the state as ghost forests, with 90% of those acres classified as severely or very severely impacted. For a forest to fall under these classifications, at least half of its trees would be dead.

But saltwater intrusion isn’t just killing forests.

“There are farmers that are being highly impacted by the saltwater intrusion and the loss of productivity of their land,” said Elliott Campbell, director of the science and research division of the Watershed and Climate Services at Maryland’s Department of Natural Resources. “There’s not really a way to get the salt out.”

Farms along the Eastern Shore, including northern counties such as Cecil, Kent, Talbot and Caroline, are known for growing corn and soybeans, used primarily to feed livestock, Campbell said. But these crops don’t grow well in salty soil, and Campbell said there is no perfect alternative.

Capital News Service reporter Rachel McCrea contributed to this report.

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